Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 4, 2007
River flowNo stage reading · 918 cfs
Actual · 07/04/2007
918 cfs
USGS daily
07/04 average
2.96 ft; discharge 2,069 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 1,151 cfs.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 86° / —F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/04 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2007
86° / —F · 0.00"
07/04 average
78° / 34°F · 0.01"
17 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2007
91° / 56°F · 0.00"
07/04 average
86° / 51°F · 0.01"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/04 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/04 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.2 in SWE
Lottery odds1.37% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/04 launch
1.37%
23% below season avg 1.79% (−0.42 pts)
First-choice applications
365
Private launches available
5
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Wednesdays: 1.90%, about 1 in 53
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.