Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 15, 2009
River flow1.96 ft
Actual · 08/15/2009
1.96 ft; discharge 845 cfs
USGS daily
08/15 average
1.86 ft; discharge 780 cfs
20-year USGS
Above average by 0.10 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · No observation · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/15 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2009
No observation
08/15 average
82° / 32°F · 0.00"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2009
68° / 41°F · 0.02"
08/15 average
86° / 48°F · 0.02"
19 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/15 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/15 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds10.81% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/15 launch
10.81%
6.0× season avg 1.79% (+9.02 pts)
First-choice applications
37
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Saturdays: 2.81%, about 1 in 36
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.