Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 21, 2010
River flow2.38 ft
Actual · 07/21/2010
2.38 ft; discharge 1,200 cfs
USGS daily
07/21 average
2.23 ft; discharge 1,140 cfs
20-year USGS
Above average by 0.15 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 79° / 27°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/21 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2010
79° / 27°F · 0.00"
07/21 average
82° / 34°F · 0.01"
18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2010
87° / 52°F · 0.00"
07/21 average
91° / 53°F · 0.00"
19 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/21 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/21 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds0.76% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/21 launch
0.76%
58% below season avg 1.79% (−1.03 pts)
First-choice applications
393
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Wednesdays: 1.90%, about 1 in 53
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.