Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 6, 2011
River flow2.54 ft
Actual · 08/06/2011
2.54 ft; discharge 1,360 cfs
USGS daily
08/06 average
1.96 ft; discharge 870 cfs
20-year USGS
Above average by 0.58 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 72° / 33°F · 0.06" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/06 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2011
72° / 33°F · 0.06"
08/06 average
80° / 38°F · 0.02"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2011
79° / 48°F · 0.00"
08/06 average
86° / 52°F · 0.01"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/06 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/06 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds3.90% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/06 launch
3.90%
2.2× season avg 1.79% (+2.11 pts)
First-choice applications
77
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Saturdays: 2.81%, about 1 in 36
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.