Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 17, 2012
River flow2.74 ft
Actual · 07/17/2012
2.74 ft; discharge 1,820 cfs
USGS daily
07/17 average
2.36 ft; discharge 1,283 cfs
20-year USGS
Above average by 0.38 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 69° / 39°F · 0.02" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/17 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2012
69° / 39°F · 0.02"
07/17 average
82° / 36°F · 0.01"
18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2012
78° / 55°F · 0.47"
07/17 average
88° / 53°F · 0.04"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/17 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/17 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds1.40% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/17 launch
1.40%
22% below season avg 1.79% (−0.39 pts)
First-choice applications
215
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Tuesdays: 1.54%, about 1 in 65
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.