Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 12, 2014
River flow2.55 ft
Actual · 07/12/2014
2.55 ft; discharge 1,540 cfs
USGS daily
07/12 average
2.54 ft; discharge 1,495 cfs
20-year USGS
Above average by 0.01 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 87° / 43°F · 0.05" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/12 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2014
87° / 43°F · 0.05"
07/12 average
81° / 35°F · 0.01"
18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2014
89° / 55°F · 0.00"
07/12 average
87° / 52°F · 0.02"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/12 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/12 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds1.74% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/12 launch
1.74%
3% below season avg 1.79% (−0.05 pts)
First-choice applications
230
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Saturdays: 2.81%, about 1 in 36
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.