Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 2, 2016
River flow2.50 ft
Actual · 07/02/2016
2.50 ft; discharge 1,450 cfs
USGS daily
07/02 average
3.08 ft; discharge 2,239 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.58 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 83° / 36°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/02 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2016
83° / 36°F · 0.00"
07/02 average
80° / 34°F · 0.01"
18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2016
87° / 52°F · 0.00"
07/02 average
86° / 50°F · 0.04"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/02 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/02 average: 99% of peak melted · 0.4 in SWE
Lottery odds0.82% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/02 launch
0.82%
54% below season avg 1.79% (−0.97 pts)
First-choice applications
366
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Saturdays: 2.81%, about 1 in 36
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.