Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 7, 2016
River flow2.32 ft
Actual · 07/07/2016
2.32 ft; discharge 1,270 cfs
USGS daily
07/07 average
2.78 ft; discharge 1,819 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.46 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 67° / 25°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/07 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2016
67° / 25°F · 0.00"
07/07 average
81° / 35°F · 0.02"
17 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2016
75° / 43°F · 0.00"
07/07 average
87° / 52°F · 0.02"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/07 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/07 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds0.55% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/07 launch
0.55%
69% below season avg 1.79% (−1.24 pts)
First-choice applications
726
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Thursdays: 2.10%, about 1 in 48
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.