Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 7, 2016
River flow1.80 ft
Actual · 08/07/2016
1.80 ft; discharge 763 cfs
USGS daily
08/07 average
1.96 ft; discharge 866 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.16 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 82° / 32°F · 0.03" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/07 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2016
82° / 32°F · 0.03"
08/07 average
80° / 35°F · 0.03"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2016
82° / 48°F
08/07 average
85° / 51°F · 0.06"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/07 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/07 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds4.69% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/07 launch
4.69%
2.6× season avg 1.79% (+2.90 pts)
First-choice applications
64
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Sundays: 1.78%, about 1 in 56
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.