Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, August 22, 2016
River flow1.62 ft
Actual · 08/22/2016
1.62 ft; discharge 609 cfs
USGS daily
08/22 average
1.80 ft; discharge 735 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.18 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 81° / 27°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 08/22 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2016
81° / 27°F · 0.00"
08/22 average
78° / 33°F · 0.03"
19 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2016
90° / 44°F · 0.00"
08/22 average
84° / 49°F · 0.03"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 08/22 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 08/22 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds17.24% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 08/22 launch
17.24%
9.6× season avg 1.79% (+15.45 pts)
First-choice applications
29
Private launches available
5
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Mondays: 1.05%, about 1 in 95
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.