Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 5, 2017
River flow4.10 ft
Actual · 07/05/2017
4.10 ft; discharge 3,750 cfs
USGS daily
07/05 average
2.91 ft; discharge 1,993 cfs
20-year USGS
Above average by 1.19 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 85° / 39°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/05 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2017
85° / 39°F · 0.00"
07/05 average
78° / 36°F · 0.03"
17 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2017
89° / 52°F · 0.00"
07/05 average
85° / 52°F · 0.04"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/05 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/05 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.1 in SWE
Lottery odds0.95% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/05 launch
0.95%
47% below season avg 1.79% (−0.84 pts)
First-choice applications
316
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Wednesdays: 1.90%, about 1 in 53
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.