Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, June 4, 2018
River flow4.70 ft
Actual · 06/04/2018
4.70 ft; discharge 4,900 cfs
USGS daily
06/04 average
5.24 ft; discharge 6,248 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.54 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 76° / 39°F · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 06/04 average: 91% of peak melted · 2.6 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2018
76° / 39°F
06/04 average
68° / 35°F · 0.07"
18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2018
82° / 48°F · 0.00"
06/04 average
74° / 46°F · 0.01"
19 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 06/04 average: 91% of peak melted · 2.6 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 06/04 average: 68% of peak melted · 14.4 in SWE
Lottery odds4.76% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 06/04 launch
4.76%
2.7× season avg 1.79% (+2.97 pts)
First-choice applications
84
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Mondays: 1.05%, about 1 in 95
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.