Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 10, 2018
River flow2.46 ft
Actual · 07/10/2018
2.46 ft; discharge 1,400 cfs
USGS daily
07/10 average
2.63 ft; discharge 1,611 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.17 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 88° / 39°F · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/10 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2018
88° / 39°F
07/10 average
82° / 38°F · 0.01"
18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2018
92° / 55°F · 0.00"
07/10 average
87° / 52°F · 0.01"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/10 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/10 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds1.07% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/10 launch
1.07%
40% below season avg 1.79% (−0.72 pts)
First-choice applications
373
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Tuesdays: 1.54%, about 1 in 65
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.