Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 16, 2018
River flow2.29 ft
Actual · 07/16/2018
2.29 ft; discharge 1,230 cfs
USGS daily
07/16 average
2.40 ft; discharge 1,322 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.11 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 87° / 39°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/16 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2018
87° / 39°F · 0.00"
07/16 average
83° / 36°F · 0.00"
18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2018
91° / 55°F · 0.00"
07/16 average
89° / 52°F · 0.04"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/16 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/16 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds1.03% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/16 launch
1.03%
42% below season avg 1.79% (−0.76 pts)
First-choice applications
291
Private launches available
3
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Mondays: 1.05%, about 1 in 95
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.