Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, May 30, 2019
River flow5.53 ft
Actual · 05/30/2019
5.53 ft; discharge 6,880 cfs
USGS daily
05/30 average
5.14 ft; discharge 5,938 cfs
20-year USGS
Above average by 0.39 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 65° / 36°F · 0.03" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 05/30 average: 83% of peak melted · 5.2 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2019
65° / 36°F · 0.03"
05/30 average
63° / 29°F · 0.04"
17 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2019
78° / 42°F · 0.00"
05/30 average
72° / 43°F · 0.02"
18 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 05/30 average: 83% of peak melted · 5.2 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 05/30 average: 57% of peak melted · 19.6 in SWE
Lottery odds7.02% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 05/30 launch
7.02%
3.9× season avg 1.79% (+5.23 pts)
First-choice applications
57
Private launches available
4
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Thursdays: 2.10%, about 1 in 48
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.