Past date
Middle Fork of the Salmon River, July 15, 2019
River flow2.34 ft
Actual · 07/15/2019
2.34 ft; discharge 1,290 cfs
USGS daily
07/15 average
2.45 ft; discharge 1,382 cfs
20-year USGS
Below average by 0.11 ft.
Weather & snowStanley, ID · 83° / 38°F · 0.00" · Banner 312 · Banner Summit 312, 07/15 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Stanley, ID
That day · 2019
83° / 38°F · 0.00"
07/15 average
82° / 36°F · 0.03"
18 years
Middle Fork Lodge
Lodge averages are for future dates only (station ended 2013).
Salmon, ID
That day · 2019
97° / 59°F
07/15 average
88° / 52°F · 0.01"
20 years
Banner Summit 312
Banner Summit 312, 07/15 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Deadwood Summit 439
Deadwood Summit 439, 07/15 average: 100% of peak melted · 0.0 in SWE
Lottery odds1.27% first-choice proxy
2025 first-choice proxy · 07/15 launch
1.27%
29% below season avg 1.79% (−0.52 pts)
First-choice applications
394
Private launches available
5
Season-wide 2025 success rate
1.79%
Day-of-week context (2025)
Days with the best odds: Saturday 2.81%, Friday 2.17%
Days with the worst odds: Monday 1.05%, Tuesday 1.54%
Mondays: 1.05%, about 1 in 95
Odds are launches ÷ first-choice applications (2025 USFS). That is date competition, not a personal win rate.